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已知已知,未知已知和未知未知 (Known knowns, unknown knowns and unknown unknowns)

It’s been almost twenty years since Donald Rumsfeld, the then US Secretary of State of Defense, said:

自当时的美国国防大臣唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德(Donald Rumsfeld)说起已经过去了二十年:

"There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don't know. "
“有些事情我们知道,我们知道。有些未知的事情。也就是说,有些事情我们现在知道,我们不知道。但是还有一些未知的事情。有些事情我们不知道,我们不知道。知道。”

This saying is typically used to conduct risk management analysis by splitting the upcoming obstacles into 3 categories:

这句话通常用于通过将即将到来的障碍分为三类来进行风险管理分析:

Known knowns — things that we know (i.e are aware of) that we know. These pose less of a risk, as they are facts we are confident in.

已知已知 -我们知道(即知道)的事情。 这些风险较小,因为它们是我们有信心的事实。

Known unknowns — things that we know (i.e. are aware of) that we don’t know — they imply a risk, but since we know them we can measure the risk, understand it and investigate more to make this a known known.

已知未知事物-我们知道(即知道)的未知事物-隐含着一种风险,但是由于我们知道这些未知数 ,因此我们可以衡量风险,了解风险并进行更多调查,以使其广为人知。

Unknown unknown — things we don’t know (i.e are not aware of) that we don’t know. These are probably the most dangerous since these encompass what we are not aware of and therefore can’t plan, analyze or take actions to mitigate them. You’ll have to do some thorough exploration to find the things you don’t know that don’t know.

未知未知 -我们不知道(即不知道)的事情。 这些可能是最危险的,因为它们包含了我们不知道的内容,因此无法计划,分析或采取措施来缓解它们。 您必须进行一些彻底的探索才能找到您不知道的东西。

It can get a little confusing when you put it that way, so let’s put it in a graph:

当您这样说时,它可能会使您感到困惑,所以让我们将其放在一个图形中:

But wait… what about the unknown knowns? this is something Donald Rumsfeld didn’t discuss, but might be the most interesting.

但是等等……那未知的未知呢? 这是唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德(Donald Rumsfeld)并未讨论的问题,但可能是最有趣的。

你不知道的事 (The things you don’t know you know)

The unknown knowns quadrant is often overlooked or just misinterpreted. I can easily understand why people don’t see the importance of it and just refer to it as a nonsense contradiction — how can someone not know something they already know?

未知的已知象限经常被忽视或被误解。 我很容易理解为什么人们看不到它的重要性,而只是将其称为胡说八道-人们怎么可能不知道他们已经知道的东西?

Well, it turns out that your knowledge is based on many things you are not aware of — instincts, intuitions or other factors you think are trivial.

好吧,事实证明,您的知识基于许多您不了解的事物-本能,直觉或您认为微不足道的其他因素。

Think about your mother tongue. You can easily formulate any thought to an accurate sentence. As English is not my first language, I had to study it for years. I had to learn thousands of words to expand my vocabulary, learn the difference between a noun, a verb, an adjective and how to use them to construct a sentence. I had to learn the difference between present simple, present progressive, and past perfect. Even knowing when to use “on”, “in” or “at” is still a challenge for me. If English is your native language you might not even be aware of all these rules, you learned them when you were young and just know how to use them properly. Thus, you may also be unaware of the challenges others face when they try to speak English.

想想你的母语。 您可以轻松地将任何思想表达为准确的句子。 由于英语不是我的母语,所以我不得不学习多年。 我必须学习成千上万的单词来扩展词汇量,学习名词,动词,形容词之间的区别以及如何使用它们来构建句子。 我必须学习现在的简单,现在的进步和过去的完美之间的区别。 即使知道何时使用“在...上”,“在...中”或“在...上”仍然对我构成挑战。 如果英语是您的母语,则您甚至可能都不知道所有这些规则,因此您在年轻时就学会了这些规则,并且只知道如何正确使用它们。 因此,您可能也没有意识到其他人尝试说英语时面临的挑战。

如果您忽略未知的已知状态会怎样? (What can happen if you ignore the unknown known?)

So far we’ve only tried to understand what these known unknowns are, but haven’t elaborated on why these matter at all. Ignoring the known unknowns leads to a problematic dissonance between facts (what you know) and your awareness (what you aren’t aware of). Ignoring them can be harmful and lead to situations, some of you know all too well:

到目前为止,我们仅试图了解这些已知的未知数是什么但并未详细说明为什么这些至关重要。 忽略已知的未知数会导致事实(您所知道的)和您的意识(您所不知道的)之间出现问题性的不一致。 忽略它们可能是有害的,并可能导致情况,其中有些人非常了解:

“ Imposter综合征” (“Imposter syndrome”)

A few years ago I heard about imposter syndrome, and I immediately related to it. I always try to surround myself with people smarter than I am so I can learn and advance. The problem with that is that I always doubted my knowledge and felt like one day they will all expose my “secret” and realize that I’m not as good as I made my self out to be. I was terrified that one day they’ll demand to replace me with someone better. So far it didn’t happen (and I hope this post won’t give them any crazy ideas 😀).

几年前,我听说过冒名顶替综合症,并立即与之相关。 我总是尝试让自己周围的人比我聪明,以便我可以学习和进步。 问题在于,我总是怀疑自己的知识,并觉得有一天他们会暴露出我的“秘密”,并意识到我不如我所展现的那样出色。 我很害怕有一天他们会要求用更好的人代替我。 到目前为止,还没有发生(我希望这篇文章不会给他们任何疯狂的想法😀)。

In the last couple of months, it was very hard to avoid stumbling upon an article, a talk, or a blog that didn’t mention imposter syndrome. Everybody loves talking about it, sharing their personal stories, and being proud of being a part of an exclusive group that has this syndrome. Well… guess what, almost all of us have it. Ask 20 of your friends if they ever felt like they aren’t good enough for their job or whether they ever doubted their accomplishments — I promise that almost all of them will be able to relate.

在过去的几个月中,很难避免跌落在未提及冒名顶替综合症的文章,演讲或博客上。 每个人都喜欢谈论它,分享他们的个人故事,并为能成为患有这种综合征的专属人群的一部分而感到自豪。 好吧……猜猜,几乎我们所有人都有。 问问您的20个朋友,他们是否觉得自己做不到自己的工作,或者是否曾经怀疑自己的成就,我保证几乎所有人都能交往。

If that’s the case, is it really a syndrome? Perhaps people that always feel that they’re the best fit for the job have some “overconfidence syndrome”.

如果是这样,那真的是综合症吗? 也许总是觉得自己最适合这份工作的人患有“过度自信综合症”。

I’m sorry to burst your bubble and make you feel like you are not as “unique” as you thought. If you ask me, you are just like any other person who is unaware of what they know or appreciate the skills they have. If you’ve accomplished something or if people believe you are good at something, then you probably are. If you feel like you were just lucky or that people around you didn’t see you for the fraud that you are, then you probably have some problem in the way you perceive your skills and knowledge. This misperception means that your unknown known area is taking over the known known. You have a lot of knowns (which made you succeed) but the lack of awareness makes you feel like a fraud and is blinding your field of vision to the point that you are no longer able to see the positive qualities in you.

很抱歉打乱您的泡沫,让您感到自己不像您想象的那样“独特”。 如果您问我,您就像其他任何人都不知道他们知道或欣赏他们所拥有的技能一样。 如果您已完成某项工作,或者如果人们认为您擅长某事,那么您可能就是。 如果您觉得自己很幸运,或者周围的人没有因为自己的欺骗而看到您,那么您在感知技能和知识方面可能会遇到一些问题。 这种误解意味着您未知的已知区域正在接管已知的已知区域。 您有很多已知的知识(这使您成功了),但是缺乏意识会使您感到自己像个骗子,并且使您的视野变得盲目,以至于您不再能够看到自己的积极特质。

理解差距 (comprehension gaps)

A few years ago I was trying to explain what I do at work to a young student- “We do a file sync & share product for SMBs. We have an out of the box SaaS, but clients can also buy S3 storage and install it on-premise”. While all that might sound trivial to people with entry-level experience in the field of cloud, this student looked at me like a deer in the headlights. To top it off, he was also too embarrassed that he barely understood a word.

几年前,我试图向一位年轻学生解释我的工作-“我们为中小型企业提供文件同步和共享产品。 我们有现成的SaaS,但客户也可以购买S3存储并在本地安装。 尽管对于在云领域具有入门级经验的人来说,这听起来似乎是微不足道的,但这位学生却像大鹿一样看着我。 最重要的是,他也太尴尬以至于他几乎听不懂一个字。

Honestly, I don’t blame them because there was no way they could have know. This then got me to realize that I was ,in fact, the problem in that situation. By assuming that those terms were just common knowledge, I was ignoring my unknown knowns.

老实说,我不怪他们,因为他们不可能知道。 然后,这使我意识到,实际上,我是那种情况下的问题。 通过假设这些术语只是常识,我无视了我未知的已知事物

It’s important to note that unknown knowns aren’t limited to terminology. When you talk to grads or less experienced engineers (or other less experienced folks in your field), you may find that they too lack the knowledge that nowadays seems utterly “basic” to you.

重要的是要注意, 已知的不限于术语。 当您与应届毕业生或经验不足的工程师(或您所在领域的其他经验不足的人)交谈时,您可能会发现他们也缺乏对当今看来完全“基础”的知识。

Even when working with more experienced professionals, we sometimes don’t give enough context or drop enough details. In my field, I work on certain features for months at a time, adopt a particular team terminology and absorb individualized team practices. When I speak with other colleagues (especially those not in my team), I am entirely unaware of these knowns and assume that they’ll all intuitively understand how my team works.

即使与经验丰富的专业人士合作,我们有时也无法提供足够的背景信息或提供足够的细节。 在我的领域中,我每次都要花几个月的时间来研究某些功能,采用特定的团队术语并吸收个性化的团队实践。 当我与其他同事(尤其是不在团队中的同事)交谈时,我完全不知道这些已知信息,并假设他们都会直观地了解我的团队的工作方式。

These types of comprehension gaps often lead to misalignments because everyone tends of interpreting the implicit details differently. Being more aware of small details such as these and being more explicit about them, can reduce confusion and create better team alignment.

这些类型的理解差距通常会导致错位,因为每个人都倾向于以不同的方式解释隐式细节。 更加了解诸如此类的小细节并使其更加明确,可以减少混乱并建立更好的团队协作。

感觉自己成长不够 (Feeling like you aren’t growing enough)

At the start of my career, everything was new and I felt like I was learning new things every day. At some point, I started feeling like my learning curve is slowly diminishing. Eventually, it got to a point where I didn’t learn new languages or coding techniques every day because I was already familiar with the operational patterns… Turns out I was wrong about that.

在我职业生涯的开始,一切都是新的,我觉得自己每天都在学习新事物。 在某个时候,我开始觉得自己的学习曲线正在逐渐减小。 最终,由于我已经熟悉操作模式,我每天都没有学习新的语言或编码技术,结果……我发现这是错误的。

In truth, I was learning a ton every single day. As a senior software engineer, I was doing more work that required “soft skills” such as communication, planning and team engagement. It was difficult to be mindful of these skills, when I only briefly thinking about what I’ve learned.

实际上,我每天都在学习很多东西。 作为一名高级软件工程师,我正在做更多需要“软技能”的工作,例如沟通,计划和团队合作。 当我仅简短地思考所学内容时,很难记住这些技能。

But even the “hard skills” that I’ve learned are tricky and easy to ignore: When I look back at last months I might only remember that I’ve learned GoLang, but if I dig deeper, I’ll find all those other sneaky unknown knowns which ARE the key factor in advancing my career to the next level.

但是,即使我学到的“硬技能”也很棘手,而且很容易被忽略:当我回顾上个月时,我可能只记得我已经学过GoLang,但是如果我深入研究,我会发现所有其他狡猾的未知数是将我的职业提升到新水平的关键因素。

该走黄砖路了 (It’s time to follow the yellow brick road)

In the story of the Wizard Of Oz, Dorothy meets the Scarecrow, who wants a brain, the Tin Woodman, who desires a heart, and the Cowardly Lion, who needs courage. They all walk together, experience many adventures and overcome their challenges through the utilization of each others` strengths. When they get back to the Wizard of Oz, he explains to them that the attributes they sought after were within them all along. The way I see it, the journey on the yellow brick road simply cleared their blind spots and helped them see their unknown knowns.

在《绿野仙踪》的故事中,多萝西遇到了需要大脑的稻草人,渴望心脏的锡·伍德曼和需要勇气的怯ward狮子。 他们都走在一起,经历了许多冒险,并通过利用彼此的长处克服了挑战。 当他们回到绿野仙踪时,他向他们解释说,他们一直追求的属性一直存在。 以我的方式看,在黄砖路上的旅程只是清除了他们的盲点,并帮助他们看到了未知的已知事物。

Now it’s your turn.

现在轮到你了。

如何打你的黄砖路? (How to hit your yellow brick road?)

Now that you understand the importance of the unknown knowns, it’s important that you realize that this isn’t something that requires further exploration or analysis. All you need to do is give it the attention it deserves by turning the implicit knows into explicit ones. Turn to your intuition and unconscious beliefs; tap into your instincts and mold them into something you can make known to the rest of the world. By doing so, you’ll not only be able to better communicate your thoughts and knowledge to others, but also, help yourself finally raise awareness to your unknown knowns and thereby, become better at what you do.

既然您了解了众所周知的重要性,那么重要的是您要意识到这不是需要进一步探索或分析的东西。 您需要做的就是通过将隐性知识转换为显性知识,给予应有的关注。 转向你的直觉和潜意识。 挖掘您的直觉,并将其塑造成可以让世界其他地方知道的东西。 这样,您不仅可以更好地与他人交流您的思想和知识,还可以帮助自己最终提高对未知知识的认识,从而更好地进行工作。

You also understand that switching an unknown known into a known known, doesn’t require you to study anything new — all you need to do is to call it out and turning the implicit known into explicit known. Turning your intuitions, unconscious beliefs and instincts into something you can write/talk about will help you not only to communicate and share your knowledge with other, but can also help yourself be aware of the things you know and therefore be a better professional.

您还了解到,将未知的已知知识转换为已知的已知知识并不需要您学习任何新知识-您要做的就是将其已知,并将隐式已知知识转换为显式已知知识。 将您的直觉,潜意识和本能转变为可以写/谈的东西,不仅可以帮助您与他人交流和分享知识,还可以帮助自己意识到自己所知道的事情,从而成为更好的专业人员。

So what you can you do to reveal your unknown knowns?

那么,您能做什么来揭示您的未知数呢?

揭示未知的实用方法 (Practical Ways of Revealing Your Unknown Knowns)

写更多 (Write More)

Either a blog, a draft or simply a document containing your reasoning behind a certain decision (i.e. why you preferred solution A over solution B). You’ll be surprised to learn that your seemingly simple ideas are far more profound after you write about them.

一个博客,一个草稿或一个简单的文档,其中包含您在某个决定后的推理(即,为什么偏爱解决方案A而不是解决方案B)。 当您发现关于您看似简单的想法之后,您会感到惊讶。

In my case, just a few days ago I thought about the unknown knowns. I didn't have more than 5 lines about this topic (actually I only wanted to tweet about it, but I didn't have twitter :) ) , but as you see it turned out to be much more than that.

就我而言,几天前,我想到了未知的已知事物。 关于此主题,我的线路不超过5条(实际上我只是想发推文,但我没有twitter :)),但是正如您所看到的,它远远不止于此。


追求演讲机会 (
Pursue Public Speaking Opportunities)

Speak up and share what you’ve learned with others. Don’t assume that anything you say is trivial. The best talks I’ve heard weren’t necessary given by people who studied a subject field for 20 years, but rather, those who brought forth a fresh new perspective. Remember that it’s possible to hold a five-minute talk about any topic you desire because what may seem “easy” to you requires more context when speaking to others.

大声说出来,并与他人分享您学到的知识。 不要以为您说的话都是微不足道的。 我学习过最好的演讲并不是由那些研究主题领域达20年的人提供的,而是那些带来了崭新视角的人所提供的。 请记住,可以就您想要的任何话题进行五分钟的讨论,因为在您看来“轻松”的事情与他人交谈时需要更多的上下文。

It doesn’t have to be at the biggest conference you can think of. Start with a 5 minutes talk to your team — I’m sure you have at least one thing to share with them. You’ll be amazed how many times my peers told me they won’t be able to hold a 5 talk about a topic they thought was trivial. After they’ve had the slides they asked for 10 minutes, and I was going on the safe side scheduled 15 minutes for them. It took about 20 minutes until I had to stop them ;)

它不一定是您可以想到的最大的会议。 从与您的团队进行5分钟的交谈开始-我确定您至少要与他们分享一件事。 您会惊讶于我的同龄人告诉我多少次他们无法就他们认为微不足道的话题进行5次谈话。 在他们拿到幻灯片后,他们问了10分钟,而我打算安全地为他们安排15分钟。 直到我不得不阻止他们才花了大约20分钟;)

导师其他 (Mentor Others)

Helping others will provide you with the much-needed proof that you don’t give yourself enough credit. Taking on mentorships will help you realize how much you have to offer and just how beneficial your knowledge is to others. You may not have the answer to everything and that’s fine, but never underestimate the value of the little tips and tricks you picked along your yellow brick road.

帮助他人将为您提供急需的证据,证明您没有给自己足够的信誉。 接受指导将帮助您认识到必须提供的服务以及所学知识对他人的益处。 您可能没有一切问题的答案,这就是罚款,但永远不要低估你沿着你的黄砖路挑小提示和技巧的价值。

When you help others, you finally understand that you don’t give yourself enough credit. You’ll be shocked with the number of things you didn’t think of and can now help others grow and learn. You might not have the answers for everything, and that’s fine, but you can surely help them with tips you’ve learned along the way. You can also help them with the way you analyze situations or the way you think when you hit an obstacle.

当您帮助他人时,您最终会明白,您没有给自己足够的信誉。 您没想到的事情会震惊您,现在可以帮助他人成长和学习。 您可能没有所有解决方案的答案,那很好,但是您可以肯定地用他们在此过程中学到的技巧来帮助他们。 您也可以通过分析情况或遇到障碍时的想法来帮助他们。

If by chance you don’t feel confident to become a full-on mentor, start small. Assist new hires at your workplace, or a couple of students from the local college. I can guarantee that small gestures such as these will have you reaping the fruit in no time.

如果偶然地您没有信心成为一名全面的导师,请从小做起。 在您的工作场所或当地大学的几个学生中协助新员工。 我可以保证,像这样的小手势将使您立即收获果实。

追踪您所学 (Track What You Learn)

Take a few minutes every week or month to write down the things what you’ve learned. Yes, even those that may initially appear trivial. Don’t put too much emphasis on the prominent accomplishments, but rather, pay more attention to the smaller ones. This can be a new shortcut you learned or a new strategy on how to write better emails. Share your list with your manager at work, or a 1x1 with your team during your weekly meetings. Everything deserves to be listed and appreciated, no matter how small.

每周或每月花费几分钟写下您所学到的东西。 是的,即使是最初看起来微不足道的产品。 不要过分强调突出的成就,而要更多地关注较小的成就。 这可以是您学到的新捷径,也可以是有关如何编写更好的电子邮件的新策略。 与工作中的经理共享清单,或在每周会议中与团队共享1x1清单。 不论大小,一切都应列出并赞赏。

不要忽视积极的反馈 (Don’t Ignore Positive Feedback)

You can learn a lot about yourself and what you are capable of from others. The best way to learn is by requesting feedback, either from your manager or your teammates. People often focus on the negative comments, but that’s not all you should pay attention to. When you receive feedback, make sure to also give space to your strengths and positive attributes . These can help you better understand your knowledge, and shed some light on the progress you’ve made. You might even learn that something that you thought you are not very good at, is perceived by others as one of your strengths, or rather your unknown knowns ;)

您可以从他人那里学到很多关于自己的知识和能力。 最好的学习方法是请求经理或队友的反馈。 人们经常关注负面评论,但这不是您应该注意的全部。 当您收到反馈时,请确保也要留出空间来发挥您的长处和积极属性。 这些可以帮助您更好地了解自己的知识,并阐明您所取得的进步。 您甚至可能了解到,您认为自己不太擅长的某件事,被他人视为您的长处之一,或者更确切地说是您的未知数;)

表达感激之情 (Express Gratitude)

When someone appreciates your work or compliments you, say thank you. Don’t be too modest, don’t try to explain why it wasn’t so hard, or underestimate your accomplishments — Just thank them. If someone made the effort to recognize your achievement, they have a good reason for it.

当有人赞赏您的工作或称赞您时,请说声谢谢。 不要太谦虚,不要试图解释为什么它没那么难,或者低估了您的成就-谢谢他们。 如果有人努力承认您的成就,那么他们就有充分的理由。

最终,这就是你的路 (Ultimately, it’s your road)

You don’t have to follow each and every step listed above. Everyone’s road looks different. Pave your own path and take your own road. It’s easy to forget to follow the road you took, so from time to time try to be more conscious of your unknown knowns and turn them into known knowns.

您不必遵循上面列出的每个步骤。 每个人的路看起来都不一样。 铺平自己的道路,走自己的路。 忘记走自己的路很容易,因此不时尝试更加意识到自己的未知已知并将其转变为已知已知。



Thanks for spending a few minutes of your time. Feel free to add me on Twitter / Linkedin, or comment bellow

感谢您花几分钟的时间。 随时在Twitter / Linkedin上添加我,或在下面发表评论

-Alon

-阿隆

Special thanks to:

特别感谢:

  • Keren for her great work editing this post and after many iterations — turning my ideas into something readable

    Keren的出色工作编辑了这篇文章,并经过了许多次迭代-将我的想法转化为可读性

  • Rina Artstain for proofreading, reviewing this article and giving awesome technical feedback

    Rina Artstain 进行校对,审阅本文并提供 出色 的技术反馈

翻译自: https://www.freecodecamp/news/how-to-discover-your-unknown-knowns/

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